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Ethernet and Real Rime Ethernet 2005 – 2012 Studies

A summary of three Quest studies tracks how ProfiNet, EtherCat, Ethernet IP, Powerlink, Modbus-TCP, Sercos III, VARAN and TCP/IP have been developing in the German machinery industry from 2005 to 2010 und will develop to 2012.

The three Quest studies carried out in the years 2005, 2008 and 2010 cover the trends from users’ view i.e. from the view of potential-strong machine-builders in the 10 automation-relevant sectors of the German machinery industry with 100 and more employees.

In the year 2005 50% of the investigated machine-builders had already implemented Ethernet at the machines. In 2008 67% of the machine-builders used it, then 80% in 2010 and 89% of the machine-builder will use it 2012. So the dynamic growth will obviously weaken on high level until 2012.

The partitioning of the use of Ethernet on TCP/IP and real time protocols by the machine-builders forms the shape of scissors. Since the year 2008 the scissors have been opening in favour of real time Ethernet. The portions of real time Ethernet of the total Ethernet have been dynamically growing from 35% in 2008, to 52% in 2010 and will achieve 67% in 2012 while the portions of TCP/IP have been sinking from 32% in 2008 to 28% in 2010 and will be 22% in the year 2012. That concerns the exclusive use of TCP/IP at the machines.

Real time Ethernet constitutes the motor of the dynamic development of Ethernet at the machines according to the decisions of the machine-builders.

Against this background the individual real time Ethernet protocols are showing differentiated developments from 2005 to 2012.

ProfiNet with its three versions is growing faster than the market for real time Ethernet. From 2005 to 2010 ProfiNet has duplicated its portion among the machine-builders using real time Ethernet from 15% to 38% and will achieve a portion of 42% in 2012.

EtherCat is growing as fast as the market for real time Ethernet thus stable in use by one quarter of the machine-builders with real time Ethernet.

Ethernet IP and Powerlink are showing sinking utilizations growing more slowly than the market for real time Ethernet. Both protocols cover approximately one fifth of the use of real time Ethernet with the machine-builders in 2010 and are to keep this range in 2012.

In-house solutions, Modbus-TCP, Sercos III and VARAN are growing times faster, times more slowly than the market. These protocols hold steady for special applications with a market share of up to 5% each used by approximately one sixth of the machine-builders with real time Ethernet. Sporadic single denominations by machine-builders related to other protocols are not considered thereby.

This development of Ethernet and real time Ethernet is based on the three Quest studies „Ethernet 2005 – 2008 in the automation technology of the machinery industry“ (82 pages), „Ethernet 2008 – 2011 in the automation technology of the machinery industry, the automobile industry and the food and beverage industry“ (111 pages) and „Ethernet and Safety Ethernet 2010 – 2012, trends and innovations from the view of the machinery industry“ (82 pages). The studies are briefly presented on www.qtm.de/e/index_marketstudies_free.html

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